WombleWorld Exclusive: DTB Elections 2025 Early Exit Poll
The Algorithm Has Spoken
At precisely 12:00 tomorrow, democracy will strike again. Until then, we’ve run the numbers. The data scientists of WombleWorld (that’s us, armed with a calculator from WHSmith/TG Jones and an Excel sheet that once crashed Google Drive) have produced an early exit poll of frankly alarming sophistication.
Our proprietary WombleWorld Projection Engine™ has modelled 11,340,000 possible outcomes, simulated 400 variations of voter angst, and even accounted for one bloke on WUP who threatens to vote for Simon six times despite the ballot only allowing five votes, and one per candidate maximum.
After factoring in:
A 2.5% Simon-only bullet bloc,
A 2% anti-Simon resistance movement,
And a 14% “Manifesto Divisiveness Coefficient,”
our algorithm is 97% confident that our predictions are at least 57% correct, 33% of the time.
The Projected Order of Merit
Martin Drake: Safe as a standing order.
Alex Folkes: Communication. Competence. Possibly even punctuation.
James Ledward: The youngest being the grown-up in the room.
Chris Atkinson: Rising fast thanks to the coveted “Not Simon” vote.
Simon Hood: A polarising figure, holding on, buoyed by his local supporters - “The Ghost Hunters”. They’ve been haunting the ballot with just a single vote before vanishing.
Sam Spencer: Earnest, thoughtful, and probably too decent for this election. The kind of candidate everyone likes, just not quite enough to tick.
The Science Bit
We’ve applied Weighted Algorithmic Modelling of Ballot Entropy (WAMBE®), adjusted for online noise (WUP Correction Factor of +2.3), and cross-referenced with 2024 turnout curves. We then ran the final regression through something called the Simulated Outrage Matrix, which predicts the number of posts beginning “I can’t believe members voted for X”.
The results show an 86% probability that the five incumbents or near-incumbents are re-elected, a 9% chance of a shock, and a 5% chance that someone forgets to click submit.
Methodology Disclosure (because we’re very serious)
Total sample size: 2,100 theoretical ballots.
Average votes per ballot: 4.00, except for people on principle.
Margin of error: ±40 votes or ±one long WUP rant.
Confidence interval: fluctuates with mood swings on Discord.
Insider Intelligence
Our unique insight doesn’t just come from data. We also know somebody who once knew the person who once cut the Dons Trust Secretary’s hairdresser’s mum’s hair. So you can trust our sources. They’re basically on the board.
We also sought expert insight from former Board members. Only one of them answered our call, and asked not to be named in case anyone remembered their term.
“It’s important to remember that votes win elections”
“You can have the best manifesto in the world, but if people don’t vote for you, you tend not to get elected. That’s politics.”
“The good thing about the Dons Trust is that if you don’t get elected you can always do a “Procter” and go again next year.
The WombleWorld Verdict
The algorithm may not be flawless, but it’s at least as accurate as the Dons Trust’s proxy-voting system. The likely story at noon: steady hands return, one fresh face joins, and Simon lives to post again.
If we’re wrong, it’s because democracy malfunctioned, not because our equations did.
We’ll update when the results drop with our election reflection.
WombleWorld Election Desk
Powered by spreadsheets, sarcasm, and the faint whiff of governance.
WombleWorld+ subscribers got this exit poll minutes after midnight, before we’d even finished making up the numbers. Paying early for extra confusion is the true fan-owned spirit.